ArticlePloS one2026
Beyond the 1.5°C planetary boundary: AI-forecast of Global Disease Burden and Health inequities.
Article in PloS one, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundThe planetary boundary for climate change-initially set at global mean temperature increase of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels-has been significantly transgressed. Understanding the mechanistic pathways through which climate warming impacts disease burden is critical for evidence-based policy interventions.
objectiveThis study aims to quantify and explain the global burden of disease when planetary climate boundaries are crossed at 1.5°C, 2.0°C, and 2.5°C warming thresholds.
methodsWe applied a dual-phase framework: (1) Exploratory AI using Random Forest and XGBoost algorithms to identify non-linear relationships and threshold effects between temperature increase and disease burden; (2) Explanatory AI employing SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values and causal inference models to mechanistically explain pathways linking climate change to health outcomes.
resultsAt 1.5°C warming, global heat-related deaths increase from baseline (2019) of 0.21 million to 0.35 million (+66.7%), with corresponding heat-related disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) rising from 4.77 million to 8.20 million (+71.9%). Cardiovascular disease burden escalates from 24.18 million DALYs to 29.50 million (+22.0%). At 2.0°C warming, these impacts intensify dramatically: heat-related deaths reach 0.52 million (+147.6%) and DALYs 12.50 million (+162.1%), while CVD DALYs increase to 35.80 million (+48.1%). At 2.5°C warming, heat-related deaths surge to 0.78 million (+271.4%) with DALYs of 18.90 million (+296.4%), and CVD DALYs reach 44.20 million (+82.8%).
conclusionsCrossing planetary climate boundaries triggers exponential escalation of global disease burden through multiple, synergistic pathways disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations in low-resource settings. Urgent climate mitigation to limit warming below 2.0°C could prevent millions of premature deaths and substantial DALY losses globally. Health system adaptation strategies must prioritize vulnerable populations and integrate climate resilience into health policy frameworks.
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