Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42570987›Full record

ArticleAnnals of surgical oncology2026

Comparison of 2015 and 2025 ATA Risk Stratification Systems for Predicting Recurrence in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma.

Ji Hyun Yoo, Sungjoo Lee, Bo Ram Kim, Hyunju Park, Da Eun Leem, Hyun Jin Ryu, Joon-Hyop Lee, Hye In Kim, Jae Hoon Chung, Sun Wook Kim and 1 more

Abstract read
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Annals of surgical oncology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Ji Hyun YooDivision of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Medicine, Thyroid Center, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Sungjoo LeeBiomedical Statistics Center, Research Institute for Future Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Seoul, Korea.
Bo Ram KimDivision of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Medicine, Gyeongsang National University Hospital, Jinju, Korea.
Hyunju ParkDepartment of Internal Medicine, CHA Bundang Medical Center, CHA University School of Medicine, Seongnam, Korea.
Da Eun LeemDivision of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Medicine, Korea Cancer Center Hospital, Seoul, Korea.
Hyun Jin RyuDepartment of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Kyung Hee University Hospital at Gangdong, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Joon-Hyop LeeDivision of Breast and Endocrine Surgery, Department of Surgery, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Hye In KimDivision of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Medicine, Samsung Changwon Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Changwon, Korea.
Jae Hoon ChungDivision of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Thyroid Cancer Center, Ewha Womans University Seoul Hospital, Seoul, Korea.
Sun Wook KimDivision of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Medicine, Thyroid Center, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Tae Hyuk KimDivision of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Medicine, Thyroid Center, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea. taehyukmd.kim@samsung.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7975-2437

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe 2025 American thyroid association (ATA) guidelines introduced a revised risk stratification system for thyroid cancer incorporating histology-specific models and a four-tier classification framework. However, its clinical performance in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) remains insufficiently validated. This study compared the 2015 and 2025 ATA risk stratification systems for predicting PTC recurrence and evaluated reclassification patterns. PATIENTS AND

methodsThis retrospective cohort study included 284 patients who underwent surgery for PTC at Samsung Medical Center, Seoul, Korea, between 2019 and 2021. Risk classification was performed according to the 2015 ATA three-tier system (low, intermediate, and high risk) and the 2025 ATA four-tier system (low, low-intermediate, intermediate-high, and high risk). Predictive performance for recurrence was assessed using disease-free survival (DFS) and the integrated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (iAUC).

resultsDuring follow-up, structural recurrence occurred in 23 patients (8.1%). Under the 2015 system, recurrence occurred in 0/119 low-risk, 8/106 intermediate-risk, and 15/59 high-risk patients. Under the 2025 system, recurrence occurred in 0/86 low-risk, 1/56 low-intermediate-risk, 2/53 intermediate-high-risk, and 20/89 high-risk patients, with recurrence events predominantly concentrated in the high-risk group. The 2025 ATA system resulted in substantial reclassification, particularly among patients initially classified as intermediate risk. The iAUC for predicting DFS was 0.873 for the 2015 system and 0.852 for the 2025 system.

conclusionsThe 2025 ATA risk stratification system demonstrated predictive performance comparable to the 2015 system while concentrating recurrence events predominantly within the high-risk group, suggesting improved risk discrimination in patients with PTC.

Indexed as

ATA risk stratificationDisease-free survivalPapillary thyroid carcinomaPredictive performanceRecurrence

Identifiers

PMID42570987

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.