Surrogate endpoints in cost-effectiveness analysis for use in health technology assessment - a qualitative analysis.

objectivesThe use of surrogate endpoints poses challenges to health technology assessment (HTA) agencies and payers when informing the clinical and cost-effectiveness of health technologies. Decision makers often need to make recommendations in the absence of well-established evidence on their validation, particularly when the surrogate endpoint is novel without clear links to the longer-term outcome. This study explored the guidance needs of HTA agencies and identified how they have considered and dealt with surrogate endpoints in cost-effectiveness analysis.

methodsA qualitative study was used to explore the professional experiences of international HTA staff and their collaborators. Data were collected using three focus groups with 29 participants representing 20 HTA agencies or associated organizations. Framework analysis was used to identify themes from the transcripts.

resultsHTA agencies frequently see submissions featuring surrogate endpoints. Issues they face include definitional concerns, absent or weak evidentiary links, and resource-intensive validation methods. Versatile guidance that is mindful of these challenges, such as those faced with rare diseases, is required. This would help to clarify expectations and help ascertain the required information from industry for economic modeling, on how to present the uncertainty arising from surrogate endpoints, and how to appropriately report the findings.

conclusionsDecision making using surrogate endpoints is a frequent and challenging problem faced by HTA agencies. These results provide the first-hand experiences and reflect the needs of HTA agencies globally. The resulting recommendations and considerations for the use of surrogate endpoints in economic modeling should benefit HTA agencies moving forward.