Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42557340›Full record

ArticleNature ecology & evolution2026

Extensive climate-induced range shifts in butterflies across the globe.

Shawan Chowdhury, Upama Aich, Laura H Antão, Stefan Pinkert, Perpetra Akite, Gilberto S S Almeida, Tatsuya Amano, Andras Ambrus, Jade A T Badon, Seung-Yun Baek and 85 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature ecology & evolution, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Butterfly effects.Nature ecology & evolution · 2026
    Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

95 authors.

Shawan ChowdhurySchool of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. shawan.chowdhury@monash.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2936-5786
Upama AichSchool of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2576-0922
Laura H AntãoDepartment of Organismal and Evolutionary Biology, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
Stefan PinkertConservation Ecology, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Marburg, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8348-2337
Perpetra AkiteDepartment of Zoology, Entomology and Fisheries Sciences, Makerere University Kampala, Kampala, Uganda.
Gilberto S S AlmeidaGraduate Program in Neotropical Biodiversity, Institute of Biosciences, Federal University of the State of Rio de Janeiro, UNIRIO, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2146-3023
Tatsuya AmanoSchool of the Environment, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6576-3410
Andras AmbrusIndependent researcher, Kópháza, Hungary.
Jade A T BadonInstitute of Biological Sciences, University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, the Philippines.
Seung-Yun BaekInstitute of Global Innovation Research, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Fuchu, Japan.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0000-9575-3395
Maksims BalalaikinsDaugavpils University, Institute of Life Sciences and Technology, Daugavpils, Latvia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4143-1061
Michal BartákDepartment of Organismal and Evolutionary Biology, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1824-0112
Vijay BarveNatural History Museum of Los Angeles County, Los Angeles, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4852-2567
Michał BełcikInstitute of Nature Conservation, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland.
Timothy C BonebrakeSchool of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Simona BonelliDepartment of Life Science and Systems Biology, University of Turin, Turin, Italy.
Diana E BowlerUK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UK.
Michael F BrabyAustralian National Insect Collection, National Research Collections Australia, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
Roger CaritgAndorra Research and Innovation, Sant Julià de Lòria, Andorra.
Sei-Woong ChoiMokpo National University, Muan, South Korea.
Wen-Chen ChuTaiwan Biodiversity Research Institute, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiji Town, Taiwan.
Eloisa ClainDepartamento de Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico.
Steve CollinsAfrican Butterfly Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya.
Johnattan H CumplidoDepartamento de Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico.
Leonardo DapportoDepartment of Biology, University of Florence, Florence, Italy.
Gideon G DemeTurku Collegium for Science, Medicine and Technology, University of Turku, Turku, Finland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0537-6707
Matthias DolekBüro Geyer und Dolek, Wörthsee, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3778-9482
Aleksandra DolezalDepartment of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1388-3610
Fahmi Idris FirdausSchool of Life Sciences and Technology, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6073-7643
Markus FranzénIFM Biology, Conservation Ecology Group, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden.
André V L FreitasLaboratório de Ecologia e Sistemática de Borboletas, Departamento de Biologia Animal, Instituto de Biologia, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5763-4990
Richard A FullerSchool of the Environment, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9468-9678
Luisa GenschMax Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany.
Eliza GramesDepartment of Biological Sciences, Binghamton University, Binghamton, NY, USA.
Elia GuarientoInstitute for Alpine Environment, Eurac Research, Bolzano, Italy.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1060-9816
Bryan HaywoodNature Glenelg Trust, Mount Gambier, South Australia, Australia.
Shiran HershcovichButterfly Pavilion, Westminster, CO, USA.
Kerstin JantkeEarth and Society Research Hub (ESRAH), University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3126-3888
Eddie JohnCyprus Butterfly Study Group, Nicosia, Cyprus.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0009-0179-0124
Henrik KalivodaInstitute of Landscape Ecology SAS, Bratislava, Slovakia.
Azadeh KarimiDepartment of Environment, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
Ryosuke KatayoseBiodiversity Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan.
Akito Y KawaharaMcGuire Center for Lepidoptera and Biodiversity, Florida Museum of Natural History, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3724-4610
Sujan KhanalInstitute of Forestry, Pokhara, Nepal.
Krushnamegh KunteNational Centre for Biological Sciences (NCBS), Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR), Bengaluru, India.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3860-6118
Lionel L'HosteBiodiversity Monitoring and Assessment Group, Environmental Sensing and Modelling Unit, Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, Belvaux, Luxembourg.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0239-9468
Magdalena LendaInstitute of Nature Conservation, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland.
Jorge L León-CortésDepartamento de Conservación de la Biodiversidad, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, San Cristóbal de las Casas, Mexico.
Da-Li LinInstitute of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
Yuet Fung LingSchool of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Maria Lucia LoriniGraduate Program in Neotropical Biodiversity, Institute of Biosciences, Federal University of the State of Rio de Janeiro, UNIRIO, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Dirk MaesResearch Institute for Nature and Forest (INBO), Herman Teirlinckgebouw, Brussels, Belgium.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7947-3788
Dino MartinsMpala Research Centre, Nanyuki, Kenya.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1581-1642
Thomas MerckxWILD, Biology Department, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6195-3302
Xavier MestdaghBiodiversity Monitoring and Assessment Group, Environmental Sensing and Modelling Unit, Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, Belvaux, Luxembourg.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7270-8997
Yeray MonasterioAsociación Española para la Protección de las Mariposas y su Medio (ZERYNTHIA), Logroño, Spain.
Akihiro NakamuraYunnan Key Laboratory of Forest Ecosystem Stability and Global Change, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Mengla, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7349-5102
Rachel R Y OhHelmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Leipzig, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2716-7727
Lars B PetterssonBiodiversity and Evolution, Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5745-508X
Jeffrey S PippenGeorgetown University, Washington, DC, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0005-3099-4995
Clara PladevallAndorra Research and Innovation, Sant Julià de Lòria, Andorra.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0220-0260
Ingrid L PolletBiology Department, Acadia University, Wolfville, Nova Scotia, Canada.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7207-8294
Patrice PottierDivision of Ecology and Evolution, Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Acton, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2106-6597
Muhammad A RafiNational Insect Museum, National Agricultural Research Center, Islamabad, Pakistan.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5559-1416
Danielle L RamosExeter Innovation, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8009-5200
Tharindu RanasingheButterfly Conservation Society of Sri Lanka, Yatihena, Sri Lanka.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9495-9401
Fanie RautenbachApplied Microbial and Health Biotechnology Institute, Cape Peninsula University of Technology, Western Cape, South Africa.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4227-2648
Martin ReithForest Guardian Scholarships (Gadyen Forè), London, UK.
Abubakar S RingimDepartment of Animal and Environmental Biology, Federal University Dutse, Dutse, Nigeria.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0968-0842
Federico RivaDepartment of Biology, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1724-4293
David B RoyUK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5147-0331
Nils RyrholmDepartment of Electronics, Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Faculty of Engineering and Sustainable Development, University of Gävle, Gävle, Sweden.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0385-295X
Marjo SaastamoinenDepartment of Organismal and Evolutionary Biology, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7009-2527
Josef SetteleInstitute of Biological Sciences, University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, the Philippines.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8624-4983
William Sidemo-HolmDepartment of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Piotr SkorkaInstitute of Nature Conservation, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland.
Nigel E StorkSchool of Environment and Sciences, Griffith University, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Sanej P SuwalButterfly Watchers Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal.
Giedrius ŠvitraLithuanian Entomological Society, Vilnius, Lithuania.
Ann B SwengelIndependent researcher, Baraboo, WI, USA.
Scott R SwengelIndependent researcher, Baraboo, WI, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0688-3572
Nicolas TiteuxBiodiversity Monitoring and Assessment Group, Environmental Sensing and Modelling Unit, Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, Belvaux, Luxembourg.
Robert TropekDepartment of Ecology, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7499-6259
Olga TzortzakakiDepartment of Biological Applications and Technology, University of Ioannina, Ioannina, Greece.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1933-0133
Chris van SwaayDe Vlinderstichting, Wageningen, the Netherlands.
Rudi VerovnikBiotechnical Faculty, Department of Biology, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Jerome L WiedmannOhio Lepidopterists, Westerville, OH, USA.
Martin WiemersSenckenberg - Leibniz Institution for Biodiversity and Earth System Research, Senckenberg German Entomological Institute, Müncheberg, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5272-3903
Masaya YagoThe University Museum, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2168-9009
Hossein YazdandadDepartment of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Noor, Iran.
Oz B YehudaAchva Academic College, Shikmim, Israel.
Konstantina ZografouBiotechnical Faculty, Department of Biology, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Aletta BonnHelmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Leipzig, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8345-4600
Guy Pe'er *Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Leipzig, Germany.
Jonathan Lenoir *UMR CNRS 7058 Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés (EDYSAN), Université de Picardie Jules Verne, Amiens, France.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0638-9582

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Global changes are leading to widespread species redistribution. Comprehensive assessments of range shift dynamics and their drivers are difficult, partly due to the variation in range shift detection over space and taxa. Here we compile documented range shift records for 1,758 butterfly species from 105 countries and territories, representing ~10% of the known diversity of these insects. Most species (80%) experienced range expansions, and most range shifts (79%) were associated with climate change and extreme weather events. A substantial proportion of species in our dataset contracted their ranges (27%) or shifted along elevational gradients (22%). We report widespread horizontal range expansions and contractions across tropical countries, with less evidence for elevational range shifts. We show that a clearer picture of range shift dynamics emerged only through the combination of different types of data, with expert assessments and non-English studies alleviating potential biases. Our findings of climate-driven range shifts call for concerted efforts to improve inclusive data monitoring and conservation efforts, especially for tropical countries, where human-induced land-use changes exert additional critical pressure.

Indexed as

Animal DistributionButterfliesClimate ChangeAnimals

Identifiers

PMID42557340
PMCPMC13642037

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.