ArticleOphthalmic & physiological optics : the journal of the British College of Ophthalmic Opticians (Optometrists)2026
Trend of Myopia Incidence Among Adolescents (2018-2025) in Senior High School: An 8-Year Retrospective Study in Multi-Regions of China, With Projections to 2030.
Article in Ophthalmic & physiological optics : the journal of the British College of Ophthalmic Opticians (Optometrists), 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
purposeTo investigate myopia incidence over the past 8 years in senior high schools in China and predict its 5-year trend.
methodsThis study was a multiregional 8-year retrospective study. A total of 5440 male students aged 17-19 years (mean 18.3 ± 0.5 years) were included nationwide from September 2018 to September 2025. Each student was tested for visual acuity and cycloplegic refraction and followed up each year for 3 years. Historical data on refraction and myopia prevalence from 2018 to 2025 were analysed based on a Gaussian Process Regression model to predict the myopia incidence over the next 5 years (2026-2030).
resultsFrom 2018 to 2025, myopia incidence in the 5440 students over the past 8 years was 24.51%. Incidence reached a peak of 32.87% in 2020, with a low of 13.20% in 2024. In the -0.25 to +0.50 D baseline refraction subgroup, the 3-year myopia incidence peaked at 31.6%. The incidence in the first grade of senior high school was 1.36% (74/5440), rising to 4.49% (236/5253) and 19.74% (969/4908) in the second and third grades, respectively. Predictions show myopia incidence dropping from 19.23% in 2026 to 16.06% by 2030.
conclusionThe incidence rate of myopia among students in senior high school fluctuated slightly between 2018 and 2025, but is projected to decline over the next 5 years. Students with spherical equivalent refractions of <+0.50 D require attention regarding myopia prevention.
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