ArticleInternational journal of biometeorology2026
Age-specific climate sensitivity of respiratory hospitalizations in a tropical coastal city: 20-year Random Forest forecasts.
Article in International journal of biometeorology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Respiratory diseases remain a major public health challenge in tropical coastal cities, where persistent heat-humidity interactions and climate variability shape population vulnerability. This study quantified associations between atmospheric conditions and respiratory hospitalizations in Maceió, Brazil, using a 20-years time series (2000-2019). Weekly hospitalization rates stratified by age (children 0-4 years, adults 5-59 years, elderly ≥ 60 years), were modeled against meteorological variables-including temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, and solar radiation-considering lag structure of 0, 1, and 2 weeks. Random Forest regression models were applied to capture nonlinear relationships and forecast hospitalization rates. Minimum temperature was the dominant predictor, exhibiting strong inverse associations across all age groups (ρ = - 0.65, p < 0.001), with effects persisting up to two weeks. Age-specific patterns were observed: children showed immediate sensitivity to thermal and precipitation variables, whereas elderly populations exhibited delayed responses to barometric pressure and evaporation. Model performance was high for children and adults (R
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