ArticleOpen forum infectious diseases2026
A Dynamic Prediction Study of Persistent Nine-valent Human Papillomavirus Infection Among HIV-negative Men Who Have Sex With Men in Urumqi, China: a Longitudinal and Time-to-event-based Joint Model.
Article in Open forum infectious diseases, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Background: Persistent infection with 9-valent human papillomavirus (9v-HPV) is a major risk factor for HPV-related cancers among men who have sex with men (MSM). This study aimed to develop a dynamic prediction model to assess whether longitudinal sexual-behavior-related and exposure-related indicators could predict persistent 9vHPV infection among human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-negative MSM. Method: Between 2016 and 2023, HIV-negative MSM in Urumqi, China, were followed every 6 months. Baseline questionnaires and anal swabs were collected, and HPV genotyping was performed using an assay detecting 37 HPV genotypes. The primary outcome was persistent infection with 1 or more of the 9 genotypes covered by the 9-valent HPV vaccine. Persistent 9vHPV infection was defined as detection of at least one of these 9 genotypes on 2 or more consecutive visits after a negative baseline. Key indicators included same-sex partner number, anal intercourse frequency, condom use, commercial sex, club drug use, partner-seeking venues, and sexual role. A Bayesian joint model integrating longitudinal sexual-behavior-related indicators and time-to-event outcomes was developed. Predictive accuracy was assessed using the time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) with internal validation. Results: Among 704 MSM, factors including employment, commercial sex, receptive anal intercourse, and versatile roles were associated with increased persistence risk. Higher number of sexual partners (HR = 1.95) and more frequent anal intercourse (HR = 2.04) were strong predictors. The partner-based model demonstrated superior predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.727). Conclusions: The Bayesian joint model provides accurate dynamic predictions of persistent 9v-HPV infection in MSM, supporting personalized prevention strategies.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.