Short-term associations between ambient air pollution and cardiovascular disease mortality: an 11-year time-series study in Nanning, China.

Background: Short-term exposure to ambient air pollution has been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, but localized evidence from subtropical cities in southwestern China remains limited. This 11-year time-series study aimed to evaluate the short-term associations between six criteria air pollutants and daily CVD mortality in Nanning, China. Methods: We conducted a time-series analysis using daily data on CVD mortality, air pollutant concentrations, and meteorological variables from 2014 to 2024 in Nanning. Generalized additive quasi-Poisson models were used to estimate associations across single-day lags (lag0-lag7) and cumulative lag windows (lag0-1 to lag0-7), adjusting for long-term trends, temperature, relative humidity, and day of the week. Exposure-response relationships were assessed using natural cubic splines. Stratified analyses were conducted by season and age group, and two-pollutant models and sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate robustness. Results: A total of 87,913 CVD deaths were recorded during the study period, of which 57.5% occurred in males and 77.9% occurred among individuals aged ≥65 years. In single-day lag models, PM Conclusion: Short-term exposure to ambient air pollution was associated with increased CVD mortality, particularly for PM