ArticleFrontiers in psychology2026
No relative age effect in professional esports: a cross-national test of selection mechanisms.
Article in Frontiers in psychology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: The relative age effect (RAE) is well-documented in traditional sport, but its applicability to professional esports remains largely unexplored. The two existing studies examined only the entry question, without controlling for birth seasonality, testing causal mechanisms, or analyzing post-entry career trajectories. Objective: This study examined (1) whether RAE exists in professional esports after adjusting for birth seasonality; (2) whether academic cutoff dates causally influence esports career outcomes; (3) whether birth quarter affects career longevity and earnings after professional entry; and (4) whether birth quarter operates indirectly through debut age. Methods: The sample comprised 15,065 professional esports players with confirmed birthdates from the Esports Earnings database, spanning 177 countries and 609 game titles. Methods included chi-square tests with population-adjusted expected frequencies, a cross-national quasi-experiment exploiting cutoff variation across 20 countries, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression, propensity score matching, and Baron-Kenny mediation analysis with the Sobel test. Results: After adjusting for birth seasonality, no aggregate RAE was detected [χ Conclusion: At the aggregate level, professional esports shows no relative age effect after adjusting for birth seasonality, and cross-national evidence is consistent with academic cutoff dates having no causal effect on career outcomes. Birth quarter is associated with career earnings only indirectly, through the timing of debut. The traditional RAE pattern emerging in the youngest cohort (born after 2006) may warrant attention as esports adopts more structured youth development systems.
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