Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42528501›Full record

ArticlemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences2026

Hidden Burden of a Measles Outbreak Revealed by Genomic and Transmission Models.

Abbey Marye, Damon J A Toth, George Vega Yon, Jake Wagoner, Eric T Lofgren, Matthew H Samore, Andrew T Pavia, Leisha D Nolen, Kenneth Komatsu, Kelly Oakeson and 1 more

Abstract readPreprint
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Abbey MaryeUtah Department of Health and Human Services, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.
Damon J A TothDivision of Epidemiology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.
George Vega YonDivision of Epidemiology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.
Jake WagonerDivision of Epidemiology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.
Eric T LofgrenPaul G Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington, USA.
Matthew H SamorePaul G Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington, USA.
Andrew T PaviaDivision of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Department of Pediatrics, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.
Leisha D NolenUtah Department of Health and Human Services, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.
Kenneth KomatsuArizona Department of Health Services, Phoenix, AZ, USA.
Kelly OakesonUtah Department of Health and Human Services, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.
Lindsay T KeeganDivision of Epidemiology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.

Funding

Methods and Tools for Understanding Disease Dynamics in Small, Structured PopulationsR35GM147013 · NIGMS · WASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY · PI Eric T Lofgren · 2022 to 2026
$1.8M
NIGMS NIH HHS R35 GM147013
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Declining childhood vaccination rates have fueled a resurgence of measles in the United States. Surveillance systems may not accurately measure the true extent of outbreaks. As of May 2026, the largest ongoing measles outbreak in the United States originated along the Utah-Arizona border in a community with high vaccine exemption rates and limited engagement with healthcare systems, leading to incomplete testing and reporting. To quantify the true outbreak size, we used two independent approaches with complementary data sources: a phylodynamic analysis and an agent-based model. Both methods found significant underreporting, estimating the true outbreak size to be 3.1- to 4.8-fold larger than reported, with confirmed cases representing only 20.96%-32.5% total infections. These findings suggest that substantial underreporting of measles occurs, especially in tight knit communities. The use of complementary analytical approaches to evaluate completeness of reporting can reveal the extent of measles transmission and aid control efforts.

Identifiers

PMID42528501
PMCPMC13409256

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.