ArticleOccupational and environmental medicine2026
Change in physical workload and the risk of work disability due to musculoskeletal disorders: a register-based study of 1 703 935 workers in Sweden.
Article in Occupational and environmental medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
objectiveThis register-based study examined whether changes over 14 years in occupational physical workload (PWL) affected the risk of registered work disability due to a musculoskeletal disorder (MSD).
methodsThis study included 1 703 935 workers in Sweden in 2005. PWL exposure was measured using job-exposure matrices linked to registered occupations in 1990 and 2005; change in PWL was defined between categories (low, medium, high) in either direction. The outcome was cumulative incidence of 'work disability' (either long-term sickness of at least 2 years or disability pension) due to MSD from 2006 to 2019. Crude and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models estimated sex-specific HRs with 95% CIs. Models were adjusted for sociodemographic factors and health and employment history.
resultsA total of 33 369 individuals (1.96%) became work disability cases during follow-up. Compared with workers with consistently high PWL, any reduction in PWL was associated with a decreased risk of work disability due to MSD (women: HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.63, men: HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.66 for change from high to low exposure). Compared with workers with consistently low PWL, any increase was associated with a higher risk of work disability due to MSD (women: HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.53 to 1.86, men: HR 2.19, 95% CI 1.89 to 2.52 for change from low to high).
conclusionIn both sexes, decreases in PWL exposure were associated with a lower risk of MSD disability and increases in exposure with a higher risk.
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