Integrating physical activity into esports practice: predicting mental well-being and cognitive fatigue through a dual SEM-XAI approach.

Objective: The rapid professionalization of electronic sports (esports) has introduced distinct occupational health challenges, characterized by prolonged sedentary behavior, severe sleep disruptions, and high cognitive fatigue. While existing literature frequently focuses on the psychopathology of gaming disorder, the protective role of physical activity (PA) in ameliorating these specific hazards remains under-investigated. Grounded in the Biopsychosocial Model, this study aimed to elucidate the underlying mechanisms and identify the non-linear dose-response patterns through which PA is associated with esports players' mental well-being. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 512 collegiate and semi-professional esports practitioners. The study employed an innovative dual-analytical approach: Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was utilized to test the serial mediating roles of sleep quality and cognitive fatigue, alongside the moderating effect of esports engagement. Concurrently, an Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) framework-specifically Random Forest combined with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP)-was applied to uncover complex, non-linear predictive patterns and behavioral thresholds. Results: SEM results indicated that PA positively predicted mental well-being, a relationship serially mediated by improved sleep quality and reduced cognitive fatigue. Furthermore, esports engagement intensity significantly moderated this pathway, suggesting that highly engaged players derived more profound protective benefits from PA. Crucially, the SHAP analysis revealed a robust non-linear pattern: accumulating approximately 600-1,200 MET-min/week showed the steepest positive predictive contribution to mental well-being, with signs of plateauing beyond approximately 1,800 MET-min/week. Beyond this zone, the predicted psychological benefits reached a plateau, indicating diminishing returns. Conclusion: Physical activity is robustly associated with cognitive resilience and mental health outcomes in esports practitioners, suggesting its role as a potential biological regulatory factor potentially relevant to sustaining well-being in highly sedentary digital arenas. By integrating SEM with Explainable AI, this study offers preliminary, hypothesis-generating evidence that may inform future refinement of general PA guidelines for the esports phenotype, and suggests a possible direction for developing precision-based, Just-In-Time Adaptive Interventions (JITAI) to safeguard occupational well-being in the digital age.