ArticleBulletin of the World Health Organization2026
A model for the epidemiological impact of tuberculosis policy options.
Article in Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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1 citing paper in PubMed.
- A model for the epidemiological impact of tuberculosis policy options.Bulletin of the World Health Organization · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
12 authors.
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Abstract
Objective: To develop a new tuberculosis transmission model, addressing the limitations of and building on the TB Impact Model and Estimates software tool, to enable decision-makers to assess the impact of various tuberculosis interventions and allocate resources more effectively. Methods: We designed a model incorporating diagnosis and treatment pathways across public and private sectors, stratified across age groups, drug susceptibility, human immunodeficiency virus status and vaccination status. We calibrated our model using country-specific data from 29 high-burden countries and determined calibration target indicators according to national epidemic profiles. We performed the model calibration using a Bayesian adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo process. We compare modelled and actual data for Indonesia and Nigeria. Findings: Our model calibration results showed good agreement with historical tuberculosis data. In Indonesia, we demonstrate that comprehensive implementation of the Stop TB Partnership Conclusion: Our model provides a robust analytical foundation from which to assess the epidemiological impact of diverse interventions, prioritize investments and guide policy. The model's open-source design and alignment with WHO recommendations make it a valuable tool for guiding evidence-based investment.
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