ArticlePolymers2026
Multi-Factor Aging Mechanism and Multi-Parameter Synergistic Lifetime Prediction of HTV Silicone Rubber Composite Insulators.
Article in Polymers, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
The long-term aging of HTV silicone rubber composite insulators under complex environments severely threatens power transmission line reliability. Traditional single/dual-parameter aging evaluation and lifetime prediction methods have low accuracy and poor generalization because they generally ignore multi-factor synergistic effects, pollution accumulation and electrical erosion. In this work, we systematically studied the aging characteristics of HTV silicone rubber under UV radiation, humidity, salt/ash contamination and their combined effects via accelerated aging tests and field sample verification, quantitatively analyzed the evolution of key mechanical, electrical and hydrophobic properties, and revealed the multi-factor synergistic aging mechanism from a micro-macro perspective with SEM, XPS and FTIR. The acceleration factor of the comprehensive accelerated-aging test was calculated as 43.8 through field-performance matching between 2000 h laboratory aging and 10-year field aging. We further established a "physical-pollution-electrical" three-dimensional evaluation system and constructed a multi-parameter synergistic lifetime prediction model through Pearson correlation analysis, VIF diagnosis and multiple stepwise regression. Compared with traditional dual-parameter models, the proposed model integrates physically interpretable degradation, contamination and electrical-stress indicators, thereby improving both prediction accuracy and engineering traceability. The model has 33% higher accuracy than traditional dual-parameter models, with average prediction errors of 0.55 years (same-manufacturer) and 1.0 years (cross-manufacturer). Five-fold cross-validation gives an MAE of 0.62 ± 0.08 years, and independent testing shows that most validation samples fall within the 95% prediction intervals, confirming favorable applicability within the present validation scope. These results provide theoretical and technical support for condition-based maintenance of composite insulators in power grids.
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