ArticleCancers2026
Prevalence and Cure of Primary Liver Cancer in Italy by Histologic Type.
Article in Cancers, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND/
objectivesIn Italy, one- and five-year survival of primary liver cancer patients have increased in recent decades and were higher after hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) than after intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). This study aimed to estimate the complete prevalence and cure indicators (long-term survival) after liver cancer diagnosis by histologic type.
methodsData from 31 Italian cancer registries, covering 28,057,000 residents (47% of the population), were included. The complete prevalence was calculated in 2018. The mixture-cure model was used to estimate the cure fraction (CF, proportion of newly diagnosed patients with the same life expectancy as the general population), the cure prevalence (prevalent patients who will not die as a result of cancer) and the life expectancy of fatal cases (LEF).
resultsIn 2018, 31,723 Italians (53 per 100,000) lived after a liver cancer diagnosis. Among them, the cure prevalence was 23.3% for HCC and 40.3% for ICC. The CF remained <10% for cases diagnosed in recent decades. Higher and rising CF rates were observed between 2005 and 2015 only among patients with HCC aged <45 years (2% of all cases), with an increase from 13% to 22% in men and from 19% to 29% in women, and among patients aged 45-54 years (8% of all cases), with an increase from 7% to 15% in men and from 11% to 19% in women. The LEF for HCC in 2015 was 29 months for both sexes, an 8-month increase since 2005.
conclusionsNo substantial advantage nor favourable trends in the CF was apparent for older patients with HCC as compared to those with ICC, with some progresses for the small age groups of <45 years. A clear-cut increase in CF of patients with HCC aged under 55 years occurred in the 2010s decade, with no changes for older patients. This was accompanied by an increase in the LEF. Although limited by a considerable proportion of liver cancers of unspecified histologic type, the cure indicators presented here may help monitor the long-term effects of therapeutic advances and of surveillance programmes for people with cirrhosis and HCV infection.
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