ArticleInternational journal of clinical oncology2026
Forecasting colorectal cancer screening in Japan: regional and sex disparities threaten national targets.
Article in International journal of clinical oncology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
objectiveTo forecast prefecture-level progress toward Japan's 60% colorectal cancer (CRC) screening target by 2028 and quantify regional and sex-based disparities.
methodsWe extracted CRC screening rates (ages 40-69) for all 47 prefectures from 2013 to 2022 using the Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions. Sex-stratified Bayesian linear regression models were applied to logit-transformed rates. Prefectures were considered likely to achieve the target if the probability of ≥ 60% uptake by 2028 was ≥ 80%.
resultsNationwide coverage is projected to reach 51.9% (95% CrI 44.9-58.8%) by 2028, falling 8.1 percentage points short of the 60% target. Forty of 47 prefectures (85%) had less than a 20% posterior probability of meeting the target, and 14 were projected below 50% coverage. Only Yamagata exceeded the 80% probability threshold for the total population (probability 0.988). For men, three prefectures did (Yamagata, Yamanashi, Miyagi), versus one for women. Men outperformed women in 41 of 47 prefectures, with a median sex gap in target probability of 8.0 percentage points and a median lag of 6 years in projected achievement.
conclusionsBased on 2013-2022 trends, Japan is projected to miss the 60% CRC screening target by over a decade. Most prefectures had less than a 5% estimated probability of reaching 60% by 2028, and women lag men by a median of 6 years. Incremental progress under the current system appears insufficient. Reaching the target will require accelerated, prefecture-specific, and sex-sensitive interventions beyond what the current system delivers.
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