Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42506771›Full record

ArticleTropical medicine and infectious disease2026

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Malaria and Dengue from 1992 to 2021, with Projections to 2036: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

Yu Wang, Qilan Wen, Jinwei Chen, Yikun Chang, Na Cao, Xin Sun, Yuantao Hao, Wangjian Zhang, Zhicheng Du

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Tropical medicine and infectious disease, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Yu WangDepartment of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Center for Health Information Research, Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.
Qilan WenDepartment of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Center for Health Information Research, Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.
Jinwei ChenDepartment of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Center for Health Information Research, Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.
Yikun ChangDepartment of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Center for Health Information Research, Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.
Na CaoDepartment of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Center for Health Information Research, Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.
Xin SunDepartment of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Center for Health Information Research, Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.
Yuantao HaoCenter for Public Health and Epidemic Preparedness & Response, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China.
Wangjian ZhangDepartment of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Center for Health Information Research, Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.ORCID 0000-0001-9655-6385
Zhicheng DuDepartment of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Center for Health Information Research, Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.ORCID 0000-0002-1155-8443

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China 82103947National Science and Technology Major Project for the Prevention and Control of Emerging and Major Infectious Diseases 2025ZD01905102Science and Technology Program of Guangzhou 2024A04J4623Talent Support Program of Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention 2025D404
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

This study aimed to compare the burden of malaria and dengue worldwide and to project future incidence trends. Incidence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021). Temporal trends were quantified using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), age-period-cohort analysis was used to assess age, period, and cohort effects, and Bayesian age-period-cohort models were applied to project incidence to 2036. From 1992 to 2021, the global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of malaria decreased (EAPC= -0.55%), whereas that of dengue increased (EAPC = 1.83%); the corresponding age-standardized DALY rates showed EAPCs of -1.64% and 1.29%, respectively. Across 21 GBD regions, SDI was inversely correlated with ASIR for malaria (

Indexed as

denguedisability-adjusted life yearsglobal burden of diseasehealth inequalitiesincidencemalaria

Identifiers

PMID42506771
PMCPMC13418721

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.