Economic Value, Relative Vulnerability and Honeybee Colony Supply-Demand Imbalance in Chinese Agriculture, 2010-2024.

Managed honeybee colonies contribute to agriculture through multiple ecosystem services. However, the contribution of honeybees is often assessed through bee products rather than through the crop pollination services they provide. This study quantified the economic value, relative vulnerability and supply-demand imbalance of honeybee pollination in Chinese agriculture from 2010 to 2024. Using crop production, gross production value, harvested area and managed colony data, combined with crop-specific pollination-dependence coefficients, we estimated pollination function quantity, service value, relative vulnerability, theoretical colony demand and supply gaps. Benchmark pollination service value increased from US$114.27 billion in 2010 to US$247.02 billion in 2024, while pollination-attributable output increased from 203.92 million tonnes to 274.73 million tonnes. In 2024, 36.94% of selected crop value was exposed to pollination dependence, with vegetables and fruits contributing more than 93% of total benchmark value. Effective honeybee supply was estimated at 5.73 million colonies in 2024, resulting in a substantial supply deficit of 68.00 million colonies and a demand-to-effective-supply ratio of 12.88 under the benchmark scenario. Despite sensitivity to colony-use assumptions, the demand-supply gap remained persistent across alternative specifications. These results show that China's high-value agriculture increasingly depends on pollination services while managed pollination capacity remains far below theoretical demand.