Evolution of Long-Term Social Vulnerability After Tropical Cyclones in the United States.

Tropical cyclones pose a substantial threat to the health and welfare of communities across the United States. While existing research has focused primarily on the short-term impacts of tropical cyclones, typically within days or months after exposure, there remains a gap in understanding their long-term effects on the socioeconomic and demographic composition of communities-a crucial factor in measuring community resilience and recovery. In this study, we conducted a synthetic control analysis using data from all tropical cyclones that occurred in the United States during 2005-2018. We provide evidence that social vulnerability initially increased after tropical cyclones, but exposed regions recovered over time and became less socially vulnerable in the long term. For exposed regions, the social vulnerability index (SVI) increased by 2.4% (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.7%-4.1%) in the year after tropical cyclones, and persisted at elevated levels for at least 5 years. However, SVI decreased over time and, 12 years after exposure, fell even lower than expected in the absence of a tropical cyclone, decreasing to -1.0% (95% CI, -1.9%-0.0%). Our study suggests that this long-term trend may reflect post-cyclone gentrification, where vulnerable communities are displaced and replaced by more affluent, less vulnerable populations.