Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42493628›Full record

ArticleJournal of mathematical biology2026

A novel mathematical model of seasonality in Oropouche virus transmission in Amazonas, Brazil.

Carli Peterson, Darsh Gandhi, Emma Slack, Elizabeth Rubio, Amira Claxton, Christopher M Kribs

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of mathematical biology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Carli PetersonDepartment of Mathematics, The University of Texas at Arlington, 411 S Nedderman Dr, Arlington, 76019, TX, USA.
Darsh GandhiDepartment of Mathematics, The University of Texas at Arlington, 411 S Nedderman Dr, Arlington, 76019, TX, USA.
Emma SlackDepartment of Mathematics, The University of Texas at Arlington, 411 S Nedderman Dr, Arlington, 76019, TX, USA.
Elizabeth RubioDepartment of Mathematics, The University of Texas at Arlington, 411 S Nedderman Dr, Arlington, 76019, TX, USA.
Amira ClaxtonDepartment of Mathematics, The University of Texas at Arlington, 411 S Nedderman Dr, Arlington, 76019, TX, USA.
Christopher M KribsDepartment of Mathematics, The University of Texas at Arlington, 411 S Nedderman Dr, Arlington, 76019, TX, USA. kribs@uta.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0006-5584-6750

Funding

National Science Foundation DMS-2230790
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Oropouche virus (OROV) is a vector-borne arbovirus that has caused more than 500,000 infections across South America, Central America, and the Caribbean. Its primary vector, the midge species Culicoides paraensis, acquires the virus from wild reservoir hosts and transmits it to humans during blood feeding. As outbreaks within the Amazon basin continue to occur and confirmed cases steadily increase, a proper understanding of the interplay between climatic variables, vector behavior, and OROV transmission is needed to develop effective public health interventions. In this paper, we develop a novel mathematical model of Oropouche virus spread in Amazonas, Brazil using ordinary differential equations (ODEs). First, we derive the basic reproductive number at baseline to assess the potential for disease persistence. We then incorporate seasonal forcing and fit the model to weekly incidence data from the 2023-2024 outbreak using least squares optimization. With our model structure, we evaluated multiple candidate seasonality functions and implementations, including precipitation-based forcing functions and others intended to model general seasonality or the right-skewed incidence curve. Among these, quantitative results show that the seasonal variation in OROV transmission is best explained (in the sense of minimum

Indexed as

Bunyaviridae InfectionsModels, BiologicalOrthobunyavirusSeasonsAnimalsBasic Reproduction NumberBrazilCeratopogonidaeDisease OutbreaksHumansIncidenceInsect VectorsMathematical ConceptsBasic reproductive numberCulicoides paraensisEpidemic modelMathematical modelOropouche virus

Identifiers

PMID42493628
PMCPMC13395843

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.