ArticleBeijing da xue xue bao. Yi xue ban = Journal of Peking University. Health sciences2026
[Long-term evolution, effect analysis and future trend of the burden of gastritis and duodenitis in China: An analysis based on GBD 2023].
Article in Beijing da xue xue bao. Yi xue ban = Journal of Peking University. Health sciences, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
objectiveTo explore the evolutionary trends of the disease burden of gastritis and duodenitis (GD) in China from 1990 to 2023, to clarify the driving factors of changes in this burden, to predict the disease burden situation from 2024 to 2040, and to provide data support for formulating GD prevention and control strategies.
methodsBased on the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2023 data, the Joinpoint regression model was applied to analyze the annual average percentage change (AAPC) of age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate of GD in China from 1990 to 2023. The age-period-cohort model was used to investigate the effects of age, period, and cohort on incidence, prevalence, and mortality risks. Three factors-population structure change, epidemiological change, and population growth-were identified to determine their driving effects on the disease burden. The auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series model was employed to forecast the future disease burden.
resultsFrom 1990 to 2023, the number of GD incident cases in China increased from 6.158 8 million to 9.354 5 million, the number of prevalent cases rose from 8.770 6 million to 13.145 9 million, the number of deaths decreased from 19 800 to 17 200, and the number of DALY slightly declined from 902 400 person-years to 851 600 person-years. The AAPCs of age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALY rate were -1.08%, -1.18%, -3.81%, and -2.89%, respectively (all
conclusionFrom 1990 to 2023, the age-standardized disease burden of GD in China was significantly alleviated, with population factors and epidemiological changes jointly driving the burden changes. Although the number of incident and prevalent cases will increase in the future, the mortality and disability burden will continue to decrease. It is necessary to formulate targeted prevention and control strategies based on age, cohort characteristics, and driving factors.
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