ArticleCritical care and resuscitation : journal of the Australasian Academy of Critical Care Medicine2026
Modelling the number of ICU beds, ICU length of stay, and ICU admission rates in Australia and New Zealand through to 2040: The PrognostICate Study.
Article in Critical care and resuscitation : journal of the Australasian Academy of Critical Care Medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Objective: With global population growth and ageing, intensive care demand is increasing. This retrospective study, the PrognostICate ( Setting: Retrospective bi-national data analysis (2006-2025) using the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database (ANZICS-APD). Participants: All adult (>16 years) ICU patients. Intervention: Forecasting models including Poisson regression, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), logarithmic regression, and exponential smoothing (ETS) were applied. Data were combined with population projections from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Stats NZ. Model accuracy was tested using out-of-time cross-validation. Main outcome measures: Annual ICU admissions, ICULOS and ICU bed demand until 2040. Results: A total of 3,055,786 ICU admissions were analysed. In Australia, ICULOS is projected to decrease from 3.44 days (2006) to 3.21 days in 2040 (95% PI [Prediction Interval] 2.72-3.83), while increasing among ventilated patients from 4.71 to 5.61 days (95% PI 5.34-5.98). In New Zealand, ICULOS is predicted to rise from 3.26 (2006) to 3.30 days (95% PI 2.08-5.33), and among ventilated patients from 3.92 to 7.67 days (95% PI 4.80-37.80). By 2040, ICU admissions increase by 45% in Australia and 60% in New Zealand (vs 2025). ICU bed demand is estimated at 3050 beds in Australia (9.0/100,000; 95% PI 2822-3279), up from 2372 (8.9/100,000) in 2023, and 286 beds in New Zealand (4.7/100,000; 95% PI 223-348), up from 283 (5.4/100,000) in 2023. Conclusion: ICU admissions and ICULOS among ventilated patients are projected to increase in both countries by 2040. Despite heterogeneity in ICULOS across subgroups, these findings highlight the need for stratified ICU capacity planning accounting for age, sex, admission type, and ventilation status.
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