ArticleFrontiers in public health2026
Global burden and trends of non-communicable diseases among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2021: an age-period-cohort and frontier analysis with projections to 2035.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Background: Comprehensive analyses of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in children and adolescents that disentangle age, period, and cohort effects, assess health system efficiency, and project future trends remain limited. This study aims to address these gaps using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Methods: Utilizing data from GBD 2021, we analyzed age-standardized rates (ASRs) of prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for NCDs. Analyses included joinpoint regression to assess trends, age-period-cohort (APC) modeling to distinguish age, period, and birth cohort effects, frontier analysis to evaluate health system efficiency relative to socio-demographic index (SDI), and Bayesian APC modeling to project future burden to 2035. Inequalities were measured using the Slope Index of Inequality and Concentration Index. Results: From 1990 to 2021, while global age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and DALY rate (ASDR) decreased substantially (AAPC:-2.20% and-1.30%, respectively), the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased (AAPC: +0.05%). The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) remained largely stable (AAPC:-0.02%). Notably, the burden of mental disorders and diabetes and kidney diseases rose significantly. Adolescents (15-19 years) experienced increasing ASPR, contrasting with declines in younger children. Marked disparities were observed: lower SDI regions carried the highest burden, yet higher SDI regions showed rising ASIR. APC analysis confirmed strong age effects and modest cohort improvements. Frontier analysis identified significant efficiency gaps, even among high-SDI countries. Projections suggest a rising incidence in the 5-14 year age groups by 2035, alongside continued declines in mortality and DALYs. Conclusion: The shifting NCD burden toward non-fatal morbidity, especially mental and metabolic conditions in adolescents, requires developmentally tailored interventions. Addressing health system inefficiencies and socioeconomic disparities is crucial to reduce the future NCD burden and achieve Sustainable Development Goals.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.