ArticleGlobal change biology2026
Amazon Dry Season Will Lengthen Under Future Climate.
Article in Global change biology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
14 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The Amazon rainforest is a key component of the Earth system, regulating regional climate, sustaining high biodiversity and carbon stocks. However, it is threatened by climate and land-use changes. In recent decades, the region has experienced intensified droughts and heatwaves, trends expected to worsen under future warming. In this study, we assess how the timing, length, and spatial distribution of the dry season across the Amazon is projected to change this century under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Using a multi-model ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) weighted according to their RMSE performance, we estimate monthly water balance based on precipitation and evapotranspiration from 2000 to 2100. We calculated dry season onset, end, and length from accumulated water deficits, providing a spatially explicit characterization of seasonal dynamics. We find a significant lengthening of the dry season in 35% of the basin under low-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6) and up to 56% under high-emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5), with increases of up to 2 months in the southern and eastern Amazon by 2100. Such changes pose major risks for forest degradation, regional water availability, and climate feedback, potentially reducing the biome's role as a carbon sink. With such large changes even under low emission, our findings demonstrate the urgent need for spatially targeted climate adaptation strategies and mitigation policies that consider future changes in seasonal water availability. While such strategies are essential to enhance societal resilience, safeguarding forest ecosystems and preserving Amazonian hydrological functions ultimately depend on ambitious efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These actions are essential not only for local and regional sustainability but also for global climate stability.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.