Impact of improved chicken production systems on household income and dietary diversity in Tigray, Ethiopia: Evidence from an endogenous switching regression model.

Chicken farming is an important livelihood activity for households in the Tigray Region of Ethiopia, contributing to income generation and access to animal-source foods. However, robust evidence on the welfare impacts of improved chicken production systems remains limited. This study examined the effects of adopting improved chicken production systems on household income and dietary diversity among chicken-producing households. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 1,005 households across 11 districts in Tigray. Data were collected through structured face-to-face interviews, with annual household income from chicken production and Household Dietary Diversity Scores (HDDS) used as the primary outcome indicators. An Endogenous Switching Regression (ESR) model was employed to correct for potential self-selection bias and estimate the welfare effects of adopting improved chicken production systems on income and dietary diversity outcomes. Results indicated that adoption of improved chicken production systems generated substantial economic and nutritional benefits. Adopting households gained, on average, USD 666 annually compared with the income they would have achieved under traditional production systems, while non-adopting households could potentially increase their annual income by USD 710 if they adopted improved systems. The overall average income gain attributable to adoption was estimated at USD 690 per household. Adoption also improved household dietary diversity, increasing HDDS by 0.52 food groups among adopters and by 0.31 food groups among non-adopters under the counterfactual adoption scenario, with an overall average improvement of 0.42 food groups. Adoption of improved chicken production systems was positively associated with younger household heads, higher educational attainment, larger flock sizes, and improved access to veterinary services, whereas female-headed households and households with larger livestock holdings were less likely to adopt. Overall, improved chicken production systems generated substantial economic and nutritional gains, underscoring their potential to strengthen household livelihoods and food security in Tigray. Expanding access to veterinary and extension services, strengthening producer training, and improving access to affordable, quality production inputs are essential to accelerate adoption and maximize these benefits, particularly among resource-constrained households.