ArticleCarbon balance and management2026
The Italian forest carbon sink: historical evolution and future projections under alternative harvest scenarios.
Article in Carbon balance and management, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundIn 2023, forests offset approximately 9% of total GHG emissions in the EU-27, with Italy accounting for about 20% of these offsets. Historical felling rates, in Italy, are highly uncertain, with a ± 50% confidence interval. In this study, we used a forest carbon inventory model, scaled at regional level, to assess the overall impact of the harvest uncertainty on the Italian forest carbon (C) sink. The analysis included most recent information from the literature and an ancillary assessment of the harvested wood product mitigation potential. Based on this assessment, we estimate the evolution of the forest C sink to 2070, under different harvest scenarios defined by an increasing felling rate relative to the net annual increment estimated by the model on forest area available for wood supply.
resultsComparison of our results with the Italian GHGI data shows an overall good fit with the living biomass sink, but significantly higher removals by the dead organic matter pool. For the historical period, the modelled total C sink increases from -40 Tg CO
conclusionsBetween 2005 and 2023, the impact of harvest uncertainty on the total forest C sink averaged 11 Tg CO
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