ArticleRisk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis2026
The Wells-Riley Model Revisited II: Parameter Uncertainty and Population Heterogeneity.
Article in Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
In this work, we revisit the Wells-Riley model, which has been widely used to estimate airborne infection risk in indoor settings. In particular, we consider a probabilistic (i.e., "stochastic") framework of the Wells-Riley model which allows one to quantify infection risk in terms of the per-capita probability of infection for each susceptible individual, as well as the probability distribution of the number of infections (here referred to as "exposures") during the indoor interaction. Directly extending the work by Edwards, King, Noakes et al. (2024), we consider here the situation where the main parameters in the Wells-Riley model (namely, the quanta generation rate
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