Environmental change, risk perception, and adaptation: a study with extractivists of the Babaçu palm (Attalea speciosa Mart. ex Spreng) in an ecotonal environment in Northeastern Brazil.

introductionClimate and socio-environmental changes have increased the risks to the livelihoods of traditional extractive communities. This study examines how babaçu coconut breaker perceive these risks and develop adaptive strategies based on traditional ecological knowledge in an ecotonal region of Northeast Brazil. The following hypotheses were tested: (i) greater perception of environmental risk is associated with a higher probability of adopting adaptive strategies and greater knowledge thereof; (ii) greater age and longer experience in babaçu extraction are expected to increase environmental risk perception and the probability of adopting adaptive strategies, whereas lower income and lower education levels are expected to constrain adaptive responses; and (iii) community context is expected to influence adaptive responses, as stronger social organization through babaçu coconut breakers' associations may enhance the capacity to cope with environmental changes.

methodsA quali-quantitative approach was adopted in two rural communities (Alegria and Sardinha), with 58 participants engaged in babaçu extraction. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews, participant observation, and documentary analysis. Risk perception was assessed across five environmental categories (flora, fauna, soil, babaçu, and rainfall regime) using a Likert scale (1-5). Analyses included generalized linear models, Spearman's correlation, and multiple regressions. Qualitative data were analyzed through thematic content analysis, involving the coding and categorization of participants' narratives into perceived causes, consequences, and adaptive responses to environmental change.

resultsRisk perception did not directly influence the adoption of adaptive strategies. However, a positive relationship was found between risk perception and strategy diversity. Adaptive strategies are strongly associated with collective factors, such as social organization, community networks, and traditional knowledge. The Sardinha community exhibited greater strategy diversity.

conclusionAdaptive strategies in extractive communities do not depend solely on individual risk perception but on social, cultural, and institutional factors. Public policies that recognize traditional knowledge and strengthen community organization are essential for enhancing resilience.