ArticleAging clinical and experimental research2026
Machine learning-based prediction of hospital-associated complications after tibial fracture surgery in older patients: a nationwide Japanese database study.
Article in Aging clinical and experimental research, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Predicting Hospital-associated complications in older adults: methodological considerations.Aging clinical and experimental research · 2026Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundOlder adults requiring emergency surgery for acute tibial fractures are vulnerable to hospital-associated complications (HACs), but admission-time risk stratification tools are lacking. We aimed to characterize HACs and develop both an ensemble prediction model and a simplified bedside risk score.
methodsThis retrospective cohort study used the Japanese Diagnosis Procedure Combination database provided by JMDC Inc. Patients aged ≥ 65 years emergently admitted for tibial fracture (ICD-10: S82, 2014-2025) who underwent surgery within 5 days, with stay > 5 days, were included. The primary outcome was composite HACs during index hospitalization. Missing data were handled with multiple imputation. A Super Learner ensemble was developed and evaluated on held-out test data, and a simplified scorecard was derived using analysis of variance (ANOVA)-based feature selection and Weight-of-Evidence transformation.
resultsAmong 53,186 admissions, 5,193 met eligibility criteria. HACs occurred in 851 patients (16.4%), most commonly delirium (7.5%) and falls/trauma (5.7%). The Super Learner achieved a test-set area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.740 (95% CI 0.707-0.772), higher than conventional linear logistic regression (0.724). The most influential predictors were Hospital Frailty Risk Score, dementia, Barthel Index, comorbidity burden, and days to surgery. The simplified 7-variable scorecard achieved a test-set AUC of 0.736 (95% CI 0.703-0.769), stratifying patients into five risk groups (HAC rate: 3.45%-38.64%).
conclusionsHAC risk after emergency tibial fracture surgery in older adults was driven primarily by geriatric vulnerability rather than fracture-specific factors. A simplified admission-time score may support targeted prevention, pending external validation.
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