ArticleAnimals : an open access journal from MDPI2026
Changes in Carcass Condemnation During a Six-Year Transition from Antibiotic-Based to Antibiotic-Free Broiler Production in Thailand: A Bayesian Structural Time-Series Analysis.
Article in Animals : an open access journal from MDPI, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
The transition from antibiotic-based (AB) to antibiotic-free (ABF) broiler production represents a major shift in poultry management, with potential implications for flock health, welfare, and processing outcomes. This study evaluated its impact on condemnation percentage (%condemnation) using Bayesian structural time-series (BSTS) analysis. Data from a Thai integrator comprised 105,899 truckload-level records (2015-2020) across 260 contract farms. The AB period (2015-2017) served as the baseline, and the ABF period (2018-2020) was assessed using counterfactual projections. Time-series decomposition and change-point analysis revealed an increasing trend in %condemnation during the early phase of ABF implementation, followed by a decline in 2020, with five structural shifts detected. The BSTS model estimated an absolute effect of +1.10% (95% CI: -1.50 to 3.80;
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