ArticleGlobal change biology2026
Predicting Coral Offspring Survival From Reef Thermal Histories in Ningaloo World Heritage Reef.
Article in Global change biology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Identifying coral populations with heritable thermal tolerance is critical for developing climate-resilient reef conservation practices. We quantified thermal tolerance in larvae from 51 selectively bred Acropora families using acute heat stress assays (35.5°C) then modelled larval survival against 20 satellite-derived SST predictors (1985-2022) using boosted regression trees (BRT) to predict the spatial distribution of thermally resilient coral offspring along Ningaloo World Heritage Reef (East Indian Ocean). BRT models had an AUC of 0.67 (±0.01 SE) and revealed that thermal anomaly frequency, cumulative heat stress and temperature variability, particularly diurnal temperature range, most strongly predicted larval survival (37.2%, 22.7% and 21.7%, respectively). Survival peaked at thermal stress of 1.14°C -weeks (Degree Heating Weeks) and variability of daily temperature range of ~1°C day
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