Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42446118›Full record

ArticleJournal of the National Cancer Institute2026

Mortality after emergency presentation: evidence from a cohort of 929 378 Medicare beneficiaries with common cancers diagnosed 2008-2017.

Caroline A Thompson, Yuelin He, Sarah E Soppe, Xueer Zhang, Megan A Mullins, Matthew E Barclay, Nicholas Pettit, Allison W Kurian, Ellis C Dillon, Sandi Pruitt and 1 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Caroline A ThompsonDepartment of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA.
Yuelin HeDepartment of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA.
Sarah E SoppeDepartment of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA.
Xueer ZhangDepartment of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA.
Megan A MullinsDepartment of Health Economics, Systems, and Policy, Peter O'Donnell Jr. School of Public Health, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX, USA.
Matthew E BarclayEpidemiology of Cancer Healthcare and Outcomes group, Department of Behavioural Science and Health, Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College London, London, UK.
Nicholas PettitDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA.
Allison W KurianDepartments of Medicine and of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA.
Ellis C DillonCenter on Aging, University of Connecticut, Farmington, CT, USA Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Connecticut, Farmington, CT, USA.
Sandi PruittDepartment of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Peter O'Donnell Jr. School of Public Health, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX, USA.
Georgios LyratzopoulosEpidemiology of Cancer Healthcare and Outcomes group, Department of Behavioural Science and Health, Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College London, London, UK.

Funding

Diagnosis of Cancer in the Emergency Room - Explaining Persistent Disparities - Diversity SupplementR01CA264176 · NCI · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI THOMPSON, CAROLINE AVERY · 2021 to 2025
$2.0M
NCI NIH HHS HHSN261201800009CNCI NIH HHS HHSN261201800009INCI NIH HHS HHSN261201800015CNCI NIH HHS HHSN261201800015INCI NIH HHS HHSN261201800032CNCI NIH HHS HHSN261201800032INCI NIH HHS R01 CA264176
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundEmergency presentation (EP) for cancer diagnosis is associated with higher mortality, but prior research has largely focused on select cancer types or non-U.S. populations. We estimated EP prevalence and associated mortality across 16 cancers in a national Medicare cohort.

methodsUsing SEER-Medicare data, we identified patients with 16 high-burden cancers diagnosed 2008-2017. EP was defined by an ED claim within 30 days before the index cancer claim and subtyped as inpatient EP (emergency hospitalization) or outpatient EP (following ED discharge). We estimated survival probabilities and mortality risk ratios (RRs) adjusted for demographics, tumor characteristics, comorbidity, frailty, and healthcare utilization.

resultsAmong 929,378 patients, 28% were EPs (22% inpatient, 6% outpatient). EP prevalence ranged from <10% (breast, prostate) to > 40% (liver, lung, stomach, colon, ovarian, pancreatic cancers). One-year survival was 81% for non-EPs, 60% for outpatient EPs, and 36% for inpatient EPs. Compared with non-EPs, inpatient EPs had nearly 4-fold higher 30-day adjusted mortality (RR = 3.88, 95% CI: 3.81-3.96), ranging from 2.1 (pancreas) to 6.3 (lymphoma). Among 90-day survivors, inpatient EPs had 51% higher one-year mortality (RR = 1.51, 1.49-1.52), ranging from 1.1 (pancreas) to 2.1 (lymphoma). Outpatient EPs showed intermediate risk (one-year mortality RR = 1.28, 1.26-1.30).

conclusionEP is common and predicts persistently elevated mortality in older U.S. adults after comprehensive covariate adjustment. Associations were strongest for cancer types underrepresented in prior research, including hematologic malignancies, breast, prostate, and bladder cancers. Routine EP monitoring could improve risk stratification at diagnosis and guide efforts to reduce avoidable emergency presentations.

Identifiers

PMID42446118
PMCPMC13645340

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