ArticleRisk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis2026
Labor Supply, Risk Aversion, and Conflict Uncertainty.
Article in Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
We argue that the presence of conflict uncertainty fundamentally re-frames the labor-leisure choice for individual agents. During normal times, supplying labor is often perceived as a safe choice. When working itself becomes perceived as a gamble due to conflict risk, an aversion to that specific risk will result in a measurable decrease in labor supply. Using proximity to the Ukrainian border as a plausibly exogenous proxy for conflict uncertainty vis-à-vis the Russian incursion into Ukraine in 2014, we show that an increase in conflict uncertainty negatively affects individuals' willingness to work. Moreover, this response also coincides with increased perceived risk aversion arising from the conflict.
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