ArticleAlzheimer's research & therapy2026
A probabilistic framework for clinicopathological Alzheimer's disease using tau-PET.
Article in Alzheimer's research & therapy, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
background[
methodsWe computed positive and negative predictive values (PPV/NPV) of tau-PET for clinicopathological AD, defined as mild cognitive impairment or dementia with AD as the primary etiology. To account for potential pathological and clinicopathological mismatches, PPV and NPV were modeled using literature-derived sensitivity and specificity estimates of [
resultsTau-PET PPV for clinicopathological AD was generally high, particularly in individuals with higher clinician-estimated pre-PET AD probabilities, and showed minor age-related declines (e.g., 84% at ages 50-55 vs. 75% at ages 85-90, at 50% pre-PET probability). Tau-PET NPV was consistently higher than PPV and showed negligible age-related decline (e.g., 92% at ages 50-55 vs. 90% at ages 85-90, at 50% pre-PET probability). A positive tau-PET following positive amyloid-PET substantially increased PPV, particularly in older individuals (e.g., PPV increased from 56% to 83% at ages 75-80 and 30% pre-PET probability), whereas the corresponding gain in NPV after tau-PET following amyloid-PET was smaller.
conclusionsTau-PET demonstrates high PPV and NPV for clinicopathological AD. A positive tau-PET following positive amyloid-PET further increases the probability of clinicopathological AD, particularly in older adults. This underscores tau-PET's clinical utility and highlights the effect of age and pre-PET certainty on post-PET AD probabilities.
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