ArticleGlobal change biology2026
Climate Change Projected to Increase Rates of Background Tree Mortality Across Eastern North America.
Article in Global change biology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Tree mortality patterns play a central role in forest health, terrestrial carbon dynamics, and biodiversity conservation. While changes in tree mortality patterns to recent climate anomalies have been documented, the effects of climate change on ambient or "background" mortality rates in the absence of severe disturbance agents remains poorly understood. Here, we applied a machine learning approach to a large dataset of 24,576 forest permanent sample plots distributed across Canada and the United States, spanning 28.1°C in mean annual temperature and 1743.5 mm in annual precipitation, to study and predict the effects of climate on background mortality for nine of the most abundant tree species in eastern North America. We developed species-specific climate-mortality models while controlling for the interactive effects of stand development processes, CO
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