Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42434048›Full record

ArticleCommunications earth & environment2026

River channel change can affect flood hazard and impact substantially.

Laurence Hawker, Stephen E Darby, Louise Slater, Daniel R Parsons, Richard J Boothroyd, Philip J Ashworth, Hannah Cloke, Pauline Delorme, Solomon H Gebrechorkos, Helen Griffith and 11 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Communications earth & environment, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

21 authors.

Laurence HawkerSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-8317-7084
Stephen E DarbySchool of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-8778-4394
Louise SlaterSchool of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9416-488X
Daniel R ParsonsGeography and Environment, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-5142-4466
Richard J BoothroydDepartment of Geography and Planning, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9742-4229
Philip J AshworthDepartment of Geography, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Hannah ClokeDepartment of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-1472-868X
Pauline DelormeEnergy and Environment Institute, University of Hull, Hull, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-5865-714X
Solomon H GebrechorkosSchool of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-7498-0695
Helen GriffithJBA Consulting, Skipton, UK.
Yukiko HirabayashiDepartment of Civil Engineering, Shibaura Institute of Technology, 3-7-5 Toyosu, Koto-ku Tokyo, Japan.ORCID 0000-0001-5693-197X
Julian LeylandSchool of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-3419-9949
Yinxue LiuSchool of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-5250-0184
Stuart J McLellandEnergy and Environment Institute, University of Hull, Hull, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-1223-0917
Jeffrey NealSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-5793-9594
Andrew P NicholasDepartment of Geography, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Greg Sambrook SmithSchool of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-3707-1182
Chris SampsonFathom, Clifton Heights, Bristol, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-4094-2724
Ellie VahidiDepartment of Geography, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Michel WortmannSchool of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Dai YamazakiInstitute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.ORCID 0000-0002-6478-1841

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

More than one billion people are exposed to flood risk globally, with this number projected to double by 2050. Global flood models underpin risk assessment and adaptation planning, yet typically assume that river bankfull capacity corresponds to a fixed two-year return period, neglecting spatial and temporal variability in channel characteristics. Here, we evaluate how inundated areas and population exposures respond when forced with empirically-derived bankfull capacities in the Mississippi basin using the Fathom Global Flood Model. We find that present-day bankfull flows generally correspond to return periods of less than one year, leading to systematic underestimation of flood extent (9-152%) and exposure (15-472%) across 5-, 20- and 100-year flood events, with the largest discrepancies for more frequent floods. We further show that historical changes in channel morphology can influence flood impacts at magnitudes comparable to projected climate change over multi-decadal timescales, depending on emission scenarios. Our work highlights a key structural limitation in current global flood modelling frameworks with implications for risk assessments.

Indexed as

GeographyHydrologyNatural hazards

Identifiers

PMID42434048
PMCPMC13349851

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.