Computational forecasting using Swedish data in the vaccination phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic literature review deliberating modelling relevance for public health and healthcare.

backgroundThe benefits of computational forecasting in the later phase of the COVID-19 pandemic when vaccines and clinical pharmaceutical interventions were available have seldom been assessed. We aimed to evaluate computational forecasting research applied to Swedish populations in the vaccination phase of the pandemic.

methodsA systematic search was performed on March 8, 2024 in the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane library, Embase, Love platform and Epistemikos. An updated version of the Risk of bias Opinion Tool (ROBOT) was used to assess the quality of evidence reported in the papers identified in the search. The articles fulfilling the quality criteria were assessed for suitability for meta-analysis. Data were extracted from the selected articles for synthesis of characteristics, and a thematic analysis was used for a qualitative synthesis of the contents.

resultsOf 2034 unique publications identified in the database search, 6 articles satisfied the selection and quality criteria. Variability in the reporting of forecasting performance results was found to make a quantitative meta-analysis of forecast performance infeasible. The data synthesis showed that statistical modeling using Bayesian calibration was the most common methodological approach. No external model validation was reported, but 5/6 articles included internal model corroboration data. The primary theme resulting from the qualitative synthesis of article content was design or refinement of computational models with demonstration of model use in health service practice as a secondary theme. None of the articles referred to health service policymaking as the primary research context.

conclusionComputational forecasting research using Swedish population data from the vaccination phase of the COVID-19 pandemic was deployed in a model design context. While methodological knowledge was developed, most of the research was not initiated to solve the public health and healthcare problems at hand. Our results indicate that the alignment between computational forecasting research and policymaking needs in the vaccination phase of pandemics can be enhanced.