ArticlemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences2026
Incidence trends of nontuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary infections in Australia, Cambodia, Japan, Thailand, and the United States.
Article in medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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20 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundNontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) are environmental organisms increasingly causing chronic respiratory infection. Although NTM pulmonary infection is rising globally, most studies are single-country. This study evaluated temporal trends in pulmonary NTM incidence across Queensland (Australia), Phnom Penh (Cambodia), Japan, Thailand, and the United States (US), and described regional species distribution.
methodsLaboratory and insurance claims data were used. Incident infections were defined using region-specific criteria. For Queensland, Japan, and Thailand, data and denominators covered entire regions. US estimates included Medicare beneficiaries aged ≥65 years, and Cambodian incidence was estimated from Phnom Penh data and standardised nationally. Incidence rates per 100,000 population and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated overall and by sex. Age-stratified analyses and species distributions were summarised where data were available.
resultsPulmonary NTM incidence increased in all regions and was highest in Japan (47.20-57.40 per 100,000) and lowest in Phnom Penh (0.23-0.38). Queensland showed the largest increase over 24 years (IRR 7.06, p<0.0001). Female predominance occurred in high-income regions, whereas Thailand showed ~1.5-fold male predominance and Phnom Penh showed no sex predominance. Incidence was higher among individuals aged ≥60 years.
conclusionsPulmonary NTM incidence increased in all regions, varying by demographic patterns and species distribution. Differences largely reflect under-ascertainment related to diagnostic capacity and tuberculosis-focused health systems rather than true infection burden. Strengthened surveillance and diagnostic capacity are needed to define the global burden of NTM pulmonary infection.
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