ArticleBMC public health2026
A climate sensitive-health risk: A scoping review of environmental determinants of aquatic injury and mortality.
Article in BMC public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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4 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundDrowning is the third leading cause of unintentional injury death globally. Weather and ocean conditions are recognised as important determinants of drowning and other aquatic injuries (both fatal and non-fatal). Climate change represents an emerging concern increasing aquatic injury risk. This scoping review aimed to identify environmental determinants of unintentional aquatic injury, contextualising the findings within the recognised impacts of climate change.
methodsSystematic searches across eight databases identified peer-reviewed studies that investigated associations between aquatic injury and weather and ocean conditions. Two reviewers independently screened studies by title/abstract, then full text. Data were extracted using standardised forms, with numerical summary and thematic analysis employed to synthesise findings.
resultsOf 104 included studies, only five directly examined climate change impacts on aquatic injury. Eight environmental determinants were identified as drivers of aquatic injury risk. Strong evidence demonstrated positive exponential relationships between ambient air temperature > 22 °C and aquatic injury risk, with heatwaves representing periods of extreme risk. Humidity, wind speed, cloud cover, and rainfall act as exposure moderators, while wave heights of 0.5-1.5 m, wave periods > 6 s, and low water levels are associated with increased injury risk. DISCUSSION: Weather and ocean conditions are significant drivers of aquatic injury, constituting a growing climate-sensitive health risk. Climate change will disrupt weather patterns and intensify extreme events, simultaneously increasing human exposure to waterways and water-related hazard intensity. Despite projected increases in climate-driven aquatic injury, there is a paucity of research examining this critical intersection, underscoring an urgent need for targeted investigation and evidence-based adaptation strategies.
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