ArticleThe Lancet. Global health2026
In-hospital and post-discharge mortality among infants with respiratory syncytial virus in rural Kenya: a 25-year retrospective cohort study.
Article in The Lancet. Global health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundRespiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of hospital admission for lower respiratory infection in infants worldwide, with more than 95% of deaths occurring in low-income and middle-income countries. Predictors of adverse outcomes following RSV hospitalisation remain poorly defined. We aimed to identify clinical and anthropometric predictors of mortality among infants admitted with RSV pneumonia and to assess changes in mortality over a 25-year surveillance period.
methodsIn this retrospective cohort study, we analysed 25 years of paediatric surveillance at Kilifi County Hospital, Kilifi, Kenya, spanning 25 successive RSV seasons. Neonates (aged <28 days) and post-neonatal infants (aged 28 days to 12 months) admitted with WHO-defined pneumonia were tested for RSV and demographic, anthropometric, and clinical data were recorded at admission. The primary outcome was in-hospital death among infants admitted with RSV pneumonia. Predictors of mortality were identified using random-forest and multivariable logistic regression, and temporal trends in mortality and anthropometric status were examined.
findingsOf 75 482 admissions of infants to Kilifi County Hospital between Jan 1, 2001, and July 13, 2025, 19 299 (25·6%) met WHO pneumonia criteria and 2745 (22·7%) had RSV. Of these infants, 2390 (87·1%) were post-neonatal, of whom 58 (2·4%) died in hospital with 44 (76%) deaths within 7 days of admission. Mortality was independently associated with congenital heart disease (odds ratio 3·51 [95% CI 1·37-8·97]), severe undernutrition (per 1-unit reduction in weight-for-age Z score: 1·59 [1·28-1·99]), and hypoxaemia (per 1% decrease in peripheral oxygen saturation: 1·05 [1·03-1·08]). 38 (70·4%) of 54 infants with RSV who died in hospital had a mid-upper arm circumference below the severe acute malnutrition threshold of 11·5 cm. There was no evidence of a sustained decline in RSV-associated in-hospital mortality or improvement in anthropometric status over the 25-year study period.
interpretationRSV mortality in Kenyan infants remains high and has not declined over 25 years. Severe undernutrition and congenital heart disease identify infants with RSV who are at the highest risk of in-hospital death. These findings highlight the role of chronic anthropometric deficits in RSV outcomes and support targeted nutritional interventions to reduce mortality.
fundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Wellcome.
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