ArticleBMC public health2026
The impact of China's non-pharmaceutical interventions on economic growth during COVID-19: a provincial-level panel analysis.
Article in BMC public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Abstract
This study examines the economic impacts of non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented in China during the COVID-19 pandemic, utilizing a provincial-level panel dataset from 2020Q1 to 2022Q4. We employ a pooled OLS model with panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE) to address cross-sectional dependence, serial correlation, and heteroskedasticity, while a fixed-effects instrumental variable (FE-IV) model is used to resolve endogeneity from reverse causality. The analysis reveals that NPIs significantly reduced quarterly GDP growth, with coefficients ranging from -0.078 to 0.154 across models. Regional heterogeneity shows stronger negative effects in eastern (-0.092) provinces compared to western and central provinces. Temporal analysis further identifies an empirically observed three-stage targeted response: significant negative impacts in 2020 (-0.180), but an insignificant effect in 2021 and 2022, reflecting policy adjustments and economic adaptation. The findings underscore the trade-offs between public health measures and economic performance, with an estimated 0.096 percentage point economic loss due to NPIs, consistent with global studies.
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