ArticleNature communications2026
Urbanization processes widen global divergence in extreme temperature variability.
Article in Nature communications, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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10 authors.
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Abstract
Extreme temperature variability (ETV) is a key dimension of climate risk for billions of residents. However, how urbanization shapes global ETV divergence remains unclear. Here, we assemble a 1950-2020 panel of 10,522 cities and demonstrate that ETV trajectories diverge by development status as measured by the human development index (HDI). ETV intensifies in high-development cities, whereas it slowly weakens in low-development cities, resulting in a current gap of roughly 1.66 °C. Decomposing ETV into event frequency and intensity reveals that cumulative ETV is driven mainly by intensity. Using an interpretable machine-learning framework, we find that aerosols are the urban factor most strongly associated with ETV after controlling for climate and geography. Blue-green space is consistently associated with lower ETV, whereas urban morphology has a smaller and context-dependent effect. These findings link global ETV inequality to urban governance and support targeted management that focusses on limiting volatility under climate risk.
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