Disentangling Environmental Variability and Mining Disturbance: A Five-year Assessment of Mammal Community Responses to Open-pit Expansion in a Semi-arid Landscape.

Open-pit mining is a major driver of habitat transformation, yet separating mining impacts from natural environmental variability remains challenging in semi-arid ecosystems. We evaluated mammal detection patterns over five years (2020-2024) in relation to mining expansion, rainfall, vegetation productivity, water availability, and habitat type in the Northern Cape Province, South Africa. Wildlife monitoring was conducted using 52 fixed camera-trap stations distributed across approximately 43,000 ha, generating 14,360 trap-nights. Detection activity varied with rainfall and herbaceous productivity, reflecting expected resource-driven dynamics. However, three nocturnal species, aardwolf (Proteles cristatus), Cape fox (Vulpes chama), and Cape porcupine (Hystrix africaeaustralis), showed consistent declines associated with mining expansion into wild olive shrubland. Detection rates were negatively correlated with the extent of mining disturbance (r = -0.55 to -0.72).Because detection probability was not explicitly modelled, results are interpreted as activity-based associations rather than measures of abundance. Nevertheless, the consistency of observed spatial and temporal patterns suggests that mining-related habitat modification may influence wildlife activity beyond background climatic variability. These findings highlight the value of integrating long-term camera-trap monitoring with spatial disturbance mapping to support biodiversity management in semi-arid mining landscapes.