ArticlePloS one2026
Spatiotemporal dynamics of the 2025-26 measles resurgence in Mexico: A national scan‑statistic analysis.
Article in PloS one, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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19 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundFollowing over two decades of eliminated endemic transmission, Mexico experienced a significant measles resurgence in 2025-26. Declining vaccine coverage and pandemic-related service disruptions created subnational immunity gaps. We aimed to characterize the spatiotemporal patterns of this outbreak to identify areas of sustained transmission.
methodsWe conducted a retrospective surveillance study of all confirmed measles cases reported nationally over a 50-week period (mid-February 2025 to February 10, 2026). Using municipal-level data and population projections, we applied Kulldorff's space-time scan statistic (discrete Poisson model) to identify statistically significant clusters where incidence exceeded population-based expectations.
resultsA total of 8,205 confirmed cases were reported across 337 municipalities during the study period. Overall, 23 space-time clusters were identified, of which 19 were statistically significant (p < 0.001). The primary cluster, located in northern Mexico between epidemiological weeks 6 and 30, represented the focus of transmission, encompassing 89 municipalities and 4,012 cases (relative risk [RR] = 103.7). Secondary clusters reflected additional transmission patterns, including a large late-phase cluster in western Mexico with 1,493 cases (RR = 31.5), as well as several smaller, short-duration micro-outbreaks with markedly elevated localized risk (RR > 200).
conclusionsThe resurgence of measles was characterized by marked subnational heterogeneity, with both sustained regional transmission and localized surges. A late-stage, low-intensity cluster spanning 244 municipalities suggested a transition toward more diffuse national transmission. These spatiotemporal patterns suggest that geographically differentiated approaches, including subnational surveillance and targeted "mop-up" immunization campaigns, may be needed to address immunity gaps and support efforts toward restoring Mexico's elimination status.
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