ArticleEnvironmental science & technology2026
Emissions and Cost Trade-Offs of Time-Matched Clean Electricity Procurement under Interannual Weather Variability: A Case Study of Hydrogen Production.
Article in Environmental science & technology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Regulators and voluntary corporate sustainability efforts are increasingly adopting time-matching requirements (TMRs) for clean electricity procurement for large loads, such as data centers, and electricity-intensive fuel production, such as hydrogen. We use a stochastic capacity expansion model (CEM) framework to assess how interannual weather variability affects the cost and emissions impact of procurement-driven infrastructure to meet annual and hourly TMRs using the case study of a grid-connected hydrogen producer in Texas. Our approach, which relies on co-optimizing investments and hourly operations over nine weather scenarios, reveals that hourly TMR comes at a higher cost premium compared to annual TMR than previously estimated by single-scenario deterministic modeling, while emissions outcomes remain directionally consistent. Demand flexibility and partial hourly TMR (80-90%) lowers the cost premium while preserving emissions benefits. We further examine how binding renewable portfolio standards (RPS) interact with TMR costs and emissions outcomes. When an RPS is applied to non-H
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