ArticleBMJ public health2026
Predicting multiple long-term conditions with role limitation at age 46 using early-life data from the 1970 British Cohort Study.
Article in BMJ public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Background: There is minimal research investigating whether multiple long-term conditions (MLTCs) can be predicted using early-life data. We examined whether the risk of later-life MLTCs that impact everyday functioning can be predicted from factors recorded at birth and age 5. Methods: Data from 5007 participants aged 46 in the 1970 British Cohort Study were analysed. The outcome was two or more self-reported MLTCs with/without role limitation (ie, impacting everyday life functioning) due to a physical or mental health condition. Backwards stepwise logistic regression was used as a variable selection approach to identify early-life predictors that improved model discrimination for four models: (1) age 5 predictors only and MLTC with role limitation, (2) age 5 predictors only and MLTC without role limitation, (3) age 5 and birth predictors and MLTC with role limitation and (4) age 5 and birth predictors and MLTC without role limitation. Model discrimination was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC). Results: 11.9% of the sample reported MLTCs with role limitation. The set of variables selected differed across models, reflecting differences in which predictors most improved predictive discrimination for each outcome. The highest AUC (0.66) was for model 3 including age 5 and birth predictors of MLTCs with role limitation at age 46. Retained age 5 predictors included the number of immunisations, sex, Rutter behaviour score, maternal malaise index (an indication of psychological distress), asthma diagnosis, if the child was seen by a doctor/nurse in school, whether the parent viewed their child as equals, and if the parent believed the child should have unquestioning obedience towards them. Retained birth predictors included: maternal smoking, gestational age, parity and if the mother ever had a teenage pregnancy. Conclusions: Using early-life birth cohort data from birth and age 5 did not predict MLTCs with role limitation at age 46 well. Exploration of predictors during other time points in childhood could better inform preventative interventions.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.