ArticleBMC pediatrics2026
Nomogram for predicting 6-month BMIZ changes in children with Crohn's disease: a single-center retrospective study.
Article in BMC pediatrics, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundPerianal disease (PD) is an aggressive phenotype in children with Crohn's disease (CD), but its measurable impact on short-term nutritional recovery remains understudied. This study aimed to evaluate the independent effect of PD on the 6-month Body Mass Index Z-score (BMIZ) trajectory and to develop a practical nomogram for early risk stratification in pediatric CD.
methodsA single-center retrospective cohort of 51 pediatric CD patients (29 with PD and 22 without PD) with at least 6 months of follow-up was enrolled from a tertiary hospital in Fujian, southern China, between July 2017 and March 2025. BMIZ trajectories over time were estimated using linear mixed models (LMM). Predictors of 6-month ΔBMIZ were screened using univariate regression (P < 0.20), followed by LASSO regression (tenfold cross-validation) to construct a nomogram. Model performance was internally validated using 1000 bootstrap resamples (R
resultsLMM analysis showed that PD status significantly reduced the slope of BMIZ recovery after adjusting for age, sex, and biologic therapy (β = -0.085, 95% CI -0.147 to -0.023, P = 0.010). LASSO regression identified six core predictors: perianal disease, positive fecal occult blood test (FOBT), biologic therapy, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), hemoglobin (Hb), and 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (25(OH)D3). The nomogram demonstrated satisfactory predictive performance (R
conclusionPerianal disease was independently associated with suboptimal short-term nutritional recovery in children with CD. The proposed nomogram, integrating phenotypic, inflammatory, and nutritional markers, may help identify high-risk patients at diagnosis or early after diagnosis and support individualized nutritional monitoring and therapeutic planning in southern Chinese pediatric CD patients.
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