Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42396485›Full record

ArticleResearch square2026

Integrated surveillance resolves Darién paradox of Oropouche virus emergence in Panama's migration corridor.

Xacdiel Rodríguez, Juan G Perez-Jimenez, Laura W Alexander, Carlos Lezcano-Coba, Josefrancisco Galué, Yelissa Juárez, Davis Beltrán, Darci R Smith, Malik Kadir, Danielle W Ali and 59 more

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Article in Research square, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

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PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

69 authors.

Xacdiel RodríguezCarson Centre for Health & Ecosystem Research, La Peñita, Darién, Panamá.
Juan G Perez-JimenezEmerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States.
Laura W AlexanderDepartment of Public & Ecosystem Health, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States.
Carlos Lezcano-CobaCarson Centre for Health & Ecosystem Research, La Peñita, Darién, Panamá.
Josefrancisco GaluéCarson Centre for Health & Ecosystem Research, La Peñita, Darién, Panamá.
Yelissa JuárezCarson Centre for Health & Ecosystem Research, La Peñita, Darién, Panamá.
Davis BeltránGorgas Memorial Institute of Health Studies, Panama City, Panamá.
Darci R SmithMicrobiology and Immunology Department, Biological Defense Research Directorate, Naval Medical Research Command, Fort Detrick, MD, United States.
Malik KadirMicrobiology and Immunology Department, Biological Defense Research Directorate, Naval Medical Research Command, Fort Detrick, MD, United States.
Danielle W AliMicrobiology and Immunology Department, Biological Defense Research Directorate, Naval Medical Research Command, Fort Detrick, MD, United States.
Rita CorralesGorgas Memorial Institute of Health Studies, Panama City, Panamá.
Lidimarie Trujillo RodriguezGenomics and Bioinformatics Department, Biological Defense Research Directorate, Naval Medical Research Command, Fort Detrick, MD, United States.ORCID 0000-0002-7611-6689
Ghyssella E ValdiviezoGenomics and Bioinformatics Department, Biological Defense Research Directorate, Naval Medical Research Command, Fort Detrick, MD, United States.
Quinn K ThomasGenomics and Bioinformatics Department, Biological Defense Research Directorate, Naval Medical Research Command, Fort Detrick, MD, United States.
Anthony CicaloGenomics and Bioinformatics Department, Biological Defense Research Directorate, Naval Medical Research Command, Fort Detrick, MD, United States.
Maren FitzpatrickGenomics and Bioinformatics Department, Biological Defense Research Directorate, Naval Medical Research Command, Fort Detrick, MD, United States.
Andrea LuquetteGenomics and Bioinformatics Department, Biological Defense Research Directorate, Naval Medical Research Command, Fort Detrick, MD, United States.
Cameron SayerGenomics and Bioinformatics Department, Biological Defense Research Directorate, Naval Medical Research Command, Fort Detrick, MD, United States.ORCID 0000-0002-5899-7670
Regina Z CerGenomics and Bioinformatics Department, Biological Defense Research Directorate, Naval Medical Research Command, Fort Detrick, MD, United States.
Francisco MalagonGenomics and Bioinformatics Department, Biological Defense Research Directorate, Naval Medical Research Command, Fort Detrick, MD, United States.
Ilka Anabel GrajalesCarson Centre for Health & Ecosystem Research, La Peñita, Darién, Panamá.
Luis Felipe RiveraCarson Centre for Health & Ecosystem Research, La Peñita, Darién, Panamá.
Zuleyka González-RCarson Centre for Health & Ecosystem Research, La Peñita, Darién, Panamá.
Juan AntiocoCarson Centre for Health & Ecosystem Research, La Peñita, Darién, Panamá.
Ellianys Walters-ValdesCarson Centre for Health & Ecosystem Research, La Peñita, Darién, Panamá.
Niccolò Meneghello-PonceCarson Centre for Health & Ecosystem Research, La Peñita, Darién, Panamá.
Amy Y VittorEmerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States.
Kiriam Escobar-LeeCarson Centre for Health & Ecosystem Research, La Peñita, Darién, Panamá.
Aaron Abouganem-ShawCarson Centre for Health & Ecosystem Research, La Peñita, Darién, Panamá.
Fátima RodríguezGorgas Memorial Institute of Health Studies, Panama City, Panamá.
Eduardo AguirreGorgas Memorial Institute of Health Studies, Panama City, Panamá.
Steev LoyolaUS Naval Medical Research Unit SOUTH, Lima, Perú.ORCID 0000-0001-5455-2423
Yeny TinocoUS Naval Medical Research Unit SOUTH, Lima, Perú.
Brechla MorenoGorgas Memorial Institute of Health Studies, Panama City, Panamá.
María Chen-GermánGorgas Memorial Institute of Health Studies, Panama City, Panamá.
Adrean Gómez-AngeloSchool of Medicine, Columbus University, Panamá.
Samir Correa-DuarteSchool of Medicine, Columbus University, Panamá.
José AcevedoSchool of Medicine, Columbus University, Panamá.
Blas RamosSchool of Medicine, Columbus University, Panamá.
Maria Eugenia de AntinoriGorgas Memorial Institute of Health Studies, Panama City, Panamá.
Claudia GonzalezGorgas Memorial Institute of Health Studies, Panama City, Panamá.
Oris ChavarriaGorgas Memorial Institute of Health Studies, Panama City, Panamá.
Jessica GondolaGorgas Memorial Institute of Health Studies, Panama City, Panamá.
Ambar MorenoGorgas Memorial Institute of Health Studies, Panama City, Panamá.
Celestino AguilarGorgas Memorial Institute of Health Studies, Panama City, Panamá.
Pablo GonzálesMinistry of Health, Panama City, Panamá.
Carmela JackmanMinistry of Health, Panama City, Panamá.
Hector CedeñoMinistry of Health, Panama City, Panamá.
Bernardo GutiérrezPandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-9220-2739
Moritz U G KraemerPandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0001-8838-7147
Victor SaldañaCentro de Salud de Metetí, Ministerio de Salud, Darién, Panamá.
Rodrigo DeAntonioCentro Internacional de Vacunación, (Cevaxin), an Endpoint site network. Panamá, Panamá.
Alexander A MartinezGorgas Memorial Institute of Health Studies, Panama City, Panamá.
Blas ArmiénGorgas Memorial Institute of Health Studies, Panama City, Panamá.
Juan Miguel PascaleGorgas Memorial Institute of Health Studies, Panama City, Panamá.
Arlene CalvoUniversity of South Florida, College of Public Health, Panama Program, Panama City, Panamá.
Mauricio L NogueiraFaculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto, São José do Rio Preto, SP, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0003-1102-2419
William M de SouzaDepartment of Microbiology, Immunology, and Molecular Genetics, College of Medicine, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, United States.ORCID 0000-0002-0025-8293
Kathryn A HanleyDepartment of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM, United States.ORCID 0000-0001-6481-2639
Nuno R FariaMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-9747-8822
Ilaria DorigattiMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0001-9959-0706
Jesse WaggonerDepartment of Infectious Tropical Diseases and Microbiology, IRCCS Sacro Cuore Don Calabria Hospital, Negrar di Valpolicella, Verona, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-0244-5957
Nikos VasilakisDepartment of Pathology, The University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, United States.ORCID 0000-0002-0708-3289
Christl A DonnellyPandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-0195-2463
Sandra López-VergèsGorgas Memorial Institute of Health Studies, Panama City, Panamá.ORCID 0000-0002-1106-8479
Kimberly A Bishop-LillyGenomics and Bioinformatics Department, Biological Defense Research Directorate, Naval Medical Research Command, Fort Detrick, MD, United States.ORCID 0000-0002-5744-8493
Carla MavianEmerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States.
Ana I BentoDepartment of Public & Ecosystem Health, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States.ORCID 0000-0001-7728-007X
Jean-Paul CarreraCarson Centre for Health & Ecosystem Research, La Peñita, Darién, Panamá.ORCID 0000-0002-1459-2858

Funding

Coordinating Research on Emerging Arboviral Threats Encompassing the Neotropics II (CREATE-NEO II)U01AI151807 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS MED BR GALVESTON · PI Kathryn Alyce Hanley, MAURICIO Lacerda NOGUEIRA · 2020 to 2026
$9.8M
Aligning climate and health: assessing zoonotic arboviral risks in agroforestry as a climate mitigation strategyR01AI182303 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA · PI Amy Yomiko Vittor · 2024 to 2026
$1.9M
Once Bitten: Detecting the World???s Most Common Vector-Borne PathogensK08AI110528 · NIAID · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI WAGGONER, JESSE · 2014 to 2018
$917k
NIAID NIH HHS K08 AI110528NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI182303NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI151807
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Oropouche virus (OROV) spread across the Americas in 2024, yet Panama's Darién migration corridor saw no outbreak until nearly a year after Brazil's January 2024 peak, raising two hypotheses: cryptic circulation masked by diagnostic gaps, or recent introduction under permissive climatic conditions. Here we resolve this paradox using integrated clinical, genomic, and climate-informed surveillance. Among 1,040 individuals tested, 43% were OROV-positive and showed a clinical signature distinct from co-circulating arboviruses, including headache more frequent than in dengue (RR 2.38, 95% CI 1.74-3.24). The household secondary attack rate was 56%, and waste burning independently predicted infection. Phylogeographic reconstruction identified a single recent introduction in October 2024 with no evidence of adaptive evolution, excluding prolonged cryptic persistence. Climate-informed models indicate broad outbreak susceptibility across Panama, with Bocas del Toro and Los Santos as the next highest-risk provinces. These findings identify a Central American foothold for OROV with potential for further northward spread.

Indexed as

Americasemerging arbovirusesneglected tropical diseasesOrthobunyavirusphylogeographyrisk mapping

Identifiers

PMID42396485
PMCPMC13321350

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.