ArticleHealth science reports2026
Future Projection of Cystic Echinococcosis in Iran to 2040: A Secondary Analysis Based on Global Burden of Disease (2021).
Article in Health science reports, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Future Projection of Cystic Echinococcosis in Iran to 2040: A Secondary Analysis Based on Global Burden of Disease (2021).Health science reports · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Background and Aims: Hydatid cyst disease caused by Methods: We applied the illness-death model (IDM) by incorporating remission to simulate disease dynamics and project the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) by sex at the national level and across 31 provinces of Iran. The model was calibrated using historical data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD). Results: Nationally, ASPR is projected to decline from 8.87 in 2021 to 7.3 (6.9-7.7) by 2040, reflecting a 17.7% reduction. Females experience a sharper decline (-25.4%) than males (-11.6%), despite higher initial prevalence. By 2040, Gilan, Isfahan, Lorestan, and Ilam will have the highest ASPRs, while Sistan and Baluchistan, Kermanshah, and South Khorasan will have the lowest. Provincial declines vary, with the steepest in Sistan and Baluchistan (-28.7%), Kermanshah (-27.1%), and South Khorasan (-26.7%); Isfahan, Gilan, and Lorestan will see the smallest declines. Conclusion: Iran has made notable progress in controlling CE, but geographic and sex-based disparities persist due to socioecological and cultural differences. Success requires integrating zoonotic control with community-driven approaches. By focusing on pastoral vaccination, urban dog management, and culturally tailored education, Iran can shift from reducing prevalence to achieving elimination.
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