ArticleInfectious diseases of poverty2026
Impact of climate warming on Oncomelania hupensis in China: multi-scale evidence.
Article in Infectious diseases of poverty, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundClimate warming is increasingly reshaping the population dynamics of Oncomelania hupensis, the sole intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum in China. Investigating the response of O. hupensis to climate warming is crucial for guiding targeted and precise interventions against these snails, thereby advancing the progress towards schistosomiasis elimination and sustaining the achievement of elimination in China. This study aims to quantify the multi-scale responses of O. hupensis to climate warming.
methodWe conducted a 45-day temperature-controlled laboratory experiment with adult O. hupensis from Hubei Gongan County, China, exposing snails to the Low Temp group (5 ˚C), the Control group (25 ˚C), and the High Temp group (30 ˚C) to assess body-size-dependent survival. We then analyzed O. hupensis surveillance data from 1990 to 2022 across 12 provinces in China (34,554 villages), linked to climate data downloaded from ERA5-Land. We developed sliding-window models to examine climate exposure across life stages to assess population-level responses to climate warming, and used general linear mixed-effects models to explore the environmental factors influencing climate responses (geographic variables: latitude, longitude, altitude, land use, historical climate variability). Model performance was evaluated to identify the best predictive models, which were subsequently used to project future O. hupensis density under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. We further sampled 240 wild O. hupensis and measured their body sizes to validate the previous results inversely.
resultsAt the individual level, we observed that larger snails had a higher survival rate at both the Low Temp group (91.6%, 95% CI 85.8-97.7%) and High Temp group (45.7%, 95% CI 31.9-65.6%) compared with the control group (76.5%, 95% CI 58.7-99.5%). At the population level, O. hupensis density closely tracks climate warming, with 92.0% of populations showing positive temperature sensitivity. Exposure during the coldest (January: 2.7 × 10
conclusionThe O. hupensis populations grow under climate warming but are regulated by land-use types. To mitigate the impacts of climate warming and land-use on snails, surveillance and integrated interventions should be strengthened through multi-sector collaboration.
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